Saltar para: Posts [1], Pesquisa e Arquivos [2]



Dmitri Trenin sobre a crise na Crimeia

por Samuel de Paiva Pires, em 02.03.14

The crisis in Crimea could lead the world into a second cold war:

 

"In Moscow, there is a growing fatigue with the west, with the EU and the United States. Their role in Ukraine is believed to be particularly obnoxious: imposing on Ukraine a choice between the EU and Russia that it could not afford; supporting the opposition against an elected government; turning a blind eye to right-wing radical descendants of wartime Nazi collaborators; siding with the opposition to pressure the government into submission; finally, condoning an unconstitutional regime change. The Kremlin is yet again convinced of the truth of the famous maxim of Alexander III, that Russia has only two friends in the world, its army and its navy. Both now defend its interests in Crimea.

 

The Crimea crisis will not pass soon. Kiev is unlikely to agree to Crimea's secession, even if backed by clear popular will: this would be discounted because of the "foreign occupation" of the peninsula. The crisis is also expanding to include other players, notably the United States. So far, there has been no military confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian forces, but if they clash, this will not be a repeat of the five-day war in the South Caucasus, as in 2008. The conflict will be longer and bloodier, with security in Europe put at its highest risk in a quarter century.

 

Even if there is no war, the Crimea crisis is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the west and lead to changes in the global power balance, with Russia now in open competition with the United States and the European Union in the new eastern Europe. If this happens, a second round of the cold war may ensue as a punishment for leaving many issues unsolved – such as Ukraine's internal cohesion, the special position of Crimea, or the situation of Russian ethnics in the newly independent states; but, above all, leaving unresolved Russia's integration within the Euro-Atlantic community. Russia will no doubt pay a high price for its apparent decision to "defend its own" and "put things right", but others will have to pay their share, too."

 

Leitura complementar: Brincadeiras perigosasA "península" do TexasBreves notas sobre a situação na Crimeia; A NATO na Crimeia?

publicado às 15:48






Arquivo

  1. 2024
  2. J
  3. F
  4. M
  5. A
  6. M
  7. J
  8. J
  9. A
  10. S
  11. O
  12. N
  13. D
  14. 2023
  15. J
  16. F
  17. M
  18. A
  19. M
  20. J
  21. J
  22. A
  23. S
  24. O
  25. N
  26. D
  27. 2022
  28. J
  29. F
  30. M
  31. A
  32. M
  33. J
  34. J
  35. A
  36. S
  37. O
  38. N
  39. D
  40. 2021
  41. J
  42. F
  43. M
  44. A
  45. M
  46. J
  47. J
  48. A
  49. S
  50. O
  51. N
  52. D
  53. 2020
  54. J
  55. F
  56. M
  57. A
  58. M
  59. J
  60. J
  61. A
  62. S
  63. O
  64. N
  65. D
  66. 2019
  67. J
  68. F
  69. M
  70. A
  71. M
  72. J
  73. J
  74. A
  75. S
  76. O
  77. N
  78. D
  79. 2018
  80. J
  81. F
  82. M
  83. A
  84. M
  85. J
  86. J
  87. A
  88. S
  89. O
  90. N
  91. D
  92. 2017
  93. J
  94. F
  95. M
  96. A
  97. M
  98. J
  99. J
  100. A
  101. S
  102. O
  103. N
  104. D
  105. 2016
  106. J
  107. F
  108. M
  109. A
  110. M
  111. J
  112. J
  113. A
  114. S
  115. O
  116. N
  117. D
  118. 2015
  119. J
  120. F
  121. M
  122. A
  123. M
  124. J
  125. J
  126. A
  127. S
  128. O
  129. N
  130. D
  131. 2014
  132. J
  133. F
  134. M
  135. A
  136. M
  137. J
  138. J
  139. A
  140. S
  141. O
  142. N
  143. D
  144. 2013
  145. J
  146. F
  147. M
  148. A
  149. M
  150. J
  151. J
  152. A
  153. S
  154. O
  155. N
  156. D
  157. 2012
  158. J
  159. F
  160. M
  161. A
  162. M
  163. J
  164. J
  165. A
  166. S
  167. O
  168. N
  169. D
  170. 2011
  171. J
  172. F
  173. M
  174. A
  175. M
  176. J
  177. J
  178. A
  179. S
  180. O
  181. N
  182. D
  183. 2010
  184. J
  185. F
  186. M
  187. A
  188. M
  189. J
  190. J
  191. A
  192. S
  193. O
  194. N
  195. D
  196. 2009
  197. J
  198. F
  199. M
  200. A
  201. M
  202. J
  203. J
  204. A
  205. S
  206. O
  207. N
  208. D
  209. 2008
  210. J
  211. F
  212. M
  213. A
  214. M
  215. J
  216. J
  217. A
  218. S
  219. O
  220. N
  221. D
  222. 2007
  223. J
  224. F
  225. M
  226. A
  227. M
  228. J
  229. J
  230. A
  231. S
  232. O
  233. N
  234. D

Links

Estados protegidos

  •  
  • Estados amigos

  •  
  • Estados soberanos

  •  
  • Estados soberanos de outras línguas

  •  
  • Monarquia

  •  
  • Monarquia em outras línguas

  •  
  • Think tanks e organizações nacionais

  •  
  • Think tanks e organizações estrangeiros

  •  
  • Informação nacional

  •  
  • Informação internacional

  •  
  • Revistas