Estado Sentido

«An end to austerity will not boost Europe», por Martin Feldstein (professor de Economia em Harvard) no Financial Times de hoje:

«The eurozone periphery is on a risky path to end fiscal austerity and accept larger deficits. Portugal is the most recent dramatic shift in that direction: Italy, Spain and even France are also abandoning plans to cut spending and raise taxes.
This move away from budget discipline reflects a combination of popular political pressure, more accommodating bond markets and encouragement from the International Monetary Fund.
But ending fiscal austerity is not a strategy of achieving growth. It will reduce downward pressure on aggregate spending but will not lift growth and employment. Instead, it will raise interest rates and threaten a new fiscal crisis. (...)
Rising interest rates could bring back the fiscal crisis of a mutually reinforcing spiral of increasing national debts and rising borrowing costs. That could revive the risk that some countries would be unable to borrow and might therefore choose to leave the euro. If the ECB tried to prevent that despite the lack of fiscal discipline, the result would be escalating rates of inflation.
To prevent this, governments [de Itália, França, Espanha e Portugal] must combine long-run deficit reductions with short-run fiscal stimulus. Slowing the growth of pensions and other transfers would reduce future debt and prevent near-term increases in interest rates. (...)
Policies to allow budget deficits to rise are a dangerous mistake.»

Significativamente, o autor não refere uma única vez nem a Grécia (caso perdido) nem a Irlanda (caso salvo).