Estado Sentido

Liam Halligan:

"Satisfying as that may be to Western diplomats, economic sanctions will be extremely difficult to impose on Russia and are, for all their symbolism, likely to be counterproductive. For one thing, as is clear to anyone who knows Russia’s commercial landscape, many large and powerful Western companies have invested heavily in this vast, resource-rich country and won’t want their interests harmed.

Post-Soviet Russia has attracted huge foreign direct investment, going way beyond oil and gas. Western car-makers, retailers and household product companies have piled in, keen to tap into Europe’s second most valuable retail market and Russia’s highly educated and relatively cheap workforce. The likes of VW, Ford, Renault and German engineering giant Liebherr have invested billions in production facilities. Other thoroughbred Western corporates such as Pepsi, Unilever, Procter & Gamble and Boeing are also heavily committed – all of which will seriously complicate any attempt to impose economic sanctions on Russia.

Western energy security also looms large, of course. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer. Any hint that the flow of Russian crude might be interrupted would cause havoc on global markets. In recent days, as the sanctions rhetoric has cranked up, oil prices have spiked at $2-$3 a barrel. This can only harm Western crude importers such as the UK."

Leitura complementar: Brincadeiras perigosas; A "península" do Texas; Breves notas sobre a situação na Crimeia; A NATO na Crimeia?; Dmitri Trenin sobre a crise na Crimeia; Leitura recomendada; A crise da Crimeia e a ascensão da Rússia na arena internacional; Começou a escalada do disparate.